ONS / HM Land Registry · UK House Price Index · June 2026 · Released 19 August 2026 · Damian Pudner
House price growth drops to 2.0% as the stamp-duty base effect bites
Average UK house prices rose 2.0% in the 12 months to June 2026, down from a revised 3.0% in May — a fall of one-third, not the halving a careless reading might suggest, and the second consecutive monthly slowdown in the annual rate. The average UK property now costs £272,000. The slowdown is not primarily a story about June 2026: it reflects a strong May–June 2025 comparator now entering the annual calculation. ONS data show prices rose just 0.1% between May and June 2026, against a 1.0% rise in the same period a year ago, when prices rebounded sharply following the sharp fall associated with April 2025's Stamp Duty Land Tax changes. The underlying market looks closer to flat than falling.
2.0%
UK annual house price inflation
Down from 3.0% (revised) in May
£272,000
Average UK house price
+£5,000 on June 2025
−2.5%
London — annual change
10th straight month of falls; up from −3.1% in May
Key Points
UK annual house price inflation slowed to 2.0% in the 12 months to June 2026, down from a revised 3.0% in May — the second consecutive month of deceleration. Prices rose just 0.1% month-on-month (non-seasonally adjusted), against a seasonally adjusted monthly fall of 0.2%.
The slowdown is substantially a base effect. Average prices rebounded sharply in May and June 2025 after the 1 April 2025 Stamp Duty Land Tax changes in England and Northern Ireland briefly froze the market. That high 2025 comparator is now rolling into the annual calculation, mechanically dragging the 2026 rate down even where month-on-month price growth is only mildly softer.
England rose 1.8% annually to £293,262; Wales rose 1.8% to £213,162; Scotland rose 2.3% to £195,355. Northern Ireland rose 9.2% in the year to Q2 2026 to £202,487. The figure is quarterly rather than monthly and comes from a much smaller housing market than England, so short-run movements should be interpreted with greater caution.
London recorded its tenth consecutive month of annual price falls, down 2.5% — though the rate of decline is easing (from a revised −3.1% in May), driven by continued weakness in Inner London. The North West posted the strongest regional annual growth, at 4.7%, down from a revised 5.6% in May.
By property type, semi-detached homes led annual growth at 3.4%, followed by terraced (3.0%) and detached (2.3%). Flats and maisonettes were the only category to fall, down 1.6% on the year.
Mortgage approvals ticked up to 58,200 in June per the Bank of England's Money and Credit release, but remained below the preceding six-month average of 61,400 — a market treading water rather than accelerating.
HMRC-recorded transactions rose 2.5% year-on-year to 99,000 (seasonally adjusted) in June, broadly consistent with a market that has stabilised rather than either recovered or deteriorated.
Annual house price change by nation and region
12 months to June 2026 · Northern Ireland is Q2 2026 on Q2 2025
Source: ONS/HM Land Registry, UK House Price Index summary: June 2026, and ONS, Private rent and house prices, UK: August 2026.
Annual house price inflation — nations and headline regions
Nation / region
June 2026
May 2026 (revised)
Direction
Northern Ireland *
9.2%
7.4%
▲
London
−2.5%
−3.1%
▲
North West
4.7%
5.6%
▼
Scotland
2.3%
4.9%
▼
Wales
1.8%
4.1%
▼
England
1.8%
2.5%
▼
UK all
2.0%
3.0%
▼
Source: ONS, Private rent and house prices, UK: August 2026, Section 3, and ONS/HM Land Registry UK HPI summary: June 2026. Figures shown are those explicitly restated by ONS in today's release, so May 2026 comparators here are revised, not as-first-published — England's provisional May rate, for example, has since been revised from 2.3% to 2.5%. * Northern Ireland reported quarterly; the June 2026 figure is for Q2 (Apr–Jun) 2026 against Q2 2025, and the May comparator shown is Northern Ireland's Q1 2026 rate, not a revision of the same period.
All English regions — June 2026
Region
Average price
Monthly change
Annual change
London
£553,870
1.0%
−2.5%
South East
£380,380
−0.3%
0.3%
East of England
£338,707
−0.2%
1.1%
South West
£304,562
0.6%
1.9%
West Midlands
£250,941
1.0%
2.6%
East Midlands
£240,457
−0.7%
2.4%
Yorkshire & The Humber
£207,948
−0.6%
3.6%
North West
£219,922
0.4%
4.7%
North East
£165,550
1.0%
4.3%
Source: ONS/HM Land Registry, UK House Price Index summary: June 2026, section 3.2. Shown as a single-vintage snapshot (June 2026 only) because ONS's narrative bulletin did not individually restate revised May 2026 comparators for these nine regions, and using the as-first-published May figures alongside revised figures elsewhere in this note would mix data vintages. The five nations/regions ONS did restate are in the table above.
Commentary
Take the 2.0% headline at face value and it reads as a housing market cooling for a second straight month — a fall of one-third from May's revised 3.0% rate, not the halving a careless reading might suggest. Decompose it and the story is less about June 2026 than about June 2025. Prices rose strongly in May and June last year after the sharp April 2025 fall associated with the Stamp Duty Land Tax changes. Those unusually strong monthly increases are now entering the annual comparison, mechanically depressing the reported 2026 growth rate even though the month-on-month price move in June 2026 itself (+0.1% NSA, −0.2% SA) was unremarkable rather than alarming.
London's story is different and more durable. Ten consecutive months of annual falls is not a base-effect artefact — it reflects a market where high transaction taxes, elevated absolute price levels and buyer affordability constraints have been grinding away for the best part of a year. The rate of decline easing from a revised −3.1% to −2.5% is a mild positive, but London remains the clear outlier region, and it is not obvious what changes that in the near term.
Northern Ireland's 9.2% annual rise is the standout number on the page and should be treated accordingly — with caution. The figure is quarterly rather than monthly and comes from a much smaller housing market than England, so short-run movements should be interpreted with greater caution.
Why This Matters
A slowing headline rate will be read in some quarters as evidence the housing market needs support — lower rates, further stamp duty relief, demand-side stimulus. That reading gets the diagnosis backwards. Mortgage approvals ticked up in June but remain below their six-month average; transaction volumes are broadly flat year-on-year. This is a market held down less by weak demand than by a supply side that has not responded to the price signals it has been given for over a decade.
GBTT view: a 2% headline conceals a market still being reshaped by stamp duty timing effects rather than by any genuine supply response. Until planning reform delivers volume — more homes built where people actually want to live — house price growth will keep being driven by transaction-tax base effects and regional scarcity rather than by a market functioning as it should. None of this changes the case for the MPC's 17 September decision: a hold at 3.75% remains the correct call on the evidence to hand.
What This Means for the Economy
Households and buyers
With regular earnings growing faster than house prices — average weekly earnings up 3.5% annually against 2.0% house price growth — the price-to-income arithmetic is improving modestly, although mortgage rates continue to constrain affordability. Cold comfort for London buyers, where prices are still falling in nominal terms but from a base that remains far out of reach for most first-time buyers regardless.
Housing market activity
Mortgage approvals below their six-month average, alongside transaction volumes that are essentially flat, point to a market in a holding pattern rather than either a recovery or a renewed downturn. The stamp-duty base effect currently depressing the annual comparison will continue to distort the reported rate through the remainder of the summer prints before it fully rolls out of the calculation.
Policy
The regional divergence — Northern Ireland and the North West still posting mid-single-digit annual growth against London's continued falls — is a reminder that "the housing market" is really several distinct regional markets responding to different combinations of local supply, affordability and transaction-tax exposure. A national policy prescription applied uniformly will keep missing that.
Next Release: UK House Price Index, July 2026 — 16 September 2026, 9:30am.
Take the 2.0% headline at face value and it reads as a housing market cooling for a second straight month — a fall of one-third from May's revised 3.0% rate, not the halving a careless reading might suggest. Decompose it and the story is less about June 2026 than about June 2025. Prices rose strongly in May and June last year after the sharp April 2025 fall associated with the Stamp Duty Land Tax changes. Those unusually strong monthly increases are now entering the annual comparison, mechanically depressing the reported 2026 growth rate even though the month-on-month price move in June 2026 itself (+0.1% NSA, −0.2% SA) was unremarkable rather than alarming.
London's story is different and more durable. Ten consecutive months of annual falls is not a base-effect artefact — it reflects a market where high transaction taxes, elevated absolute price levels and buyer affordability constraints have been grinding away for the best part of a year. The rate of decline easing from a revised −3.1% to −2.5% is a mild positive, but London remains the clear outlier region, and it is not obvious what changes that in the near term.
Northern Ireland's 9.2% annual rise is the standout number on the page and should be treated accordingly — with caution. The figure is quarterly rather than monthly and comes from a much smaller housing market than England, so short-run movements should be interpreted with greater caution.