The headline number will generate optimism. Resist it. Approvals in April reflect deals done before conditions deteriorated. Net lending at £4.4bn shows completions thinning. Consumer credit at 8.8% remains a structural concern. Money supply ticking above the inflation-consistent band warrants watching — but one month does not make a trend.
| Series | Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| House purchase approvals (000s) | 63,979 | 65,945 | ▲ +1,966 |
| Remortgaging approvals (000s) | 51,247 | 51,263 | ▲ +16 |
| Net mortgage lending (£bn) | 6.2 | 4.4 | ▼ -1.8 |
| Consumer credit net flow (£bn) | 1.9 | 1.9 | = unchanged |
| Consumer credit 12m growth (%) | 8.9 | 8.8 | ▼ -0.1pp |
| Business lending growth — total (%) | 8.9 | 9.4 | ▲ +0.5pp |
| Money supply (M4ex) annual growth (%) | 4.5 | 4.6 | ▲ +0.1pp |
Two stories in this release, pulling in opposite directions. The headlines will write themselves — 65,945 approvals, a 15-month high, well above a Reuters consensus of 62,000. What that number actually captures is the last burst of a market front-running rate rises. Households locked in deals in April before the Iran-conflict repricing fully worked its way through lender pricing. The pipeline was filling; that pipeline has now started to drain.
Net mortgage lending at £4.4bn is the corrective. That is the completion figure — deals done weeks or months earlier, now drawn down. Its fall from £6.2bn in March, to the lowest reading since October 2025, is the real directional signal. RICS reported drops in prices and buyer demand in April. Nationwide recorded the first monthly house price fall since December in May. The forward indicators have already turned. April's approvals are a lagging reflection of an impulse that has passed.
Consumer credit at 8.8% annual growth remains uncomfortably high. Net monthly flow of £1.9bn — identical to March — is households sustaining consumption through borrowing rather than income growth. That pattern has persisted for over a year. It is not inherently catastrophic in isolation, but in a rate environment that remains restrictive, the stock of unsecured debt is building at a pace that leaves little margin.
The business lending picture is more genuinely positive. Annual growth in non-financial business lending at 9.4% overall, with large businesses at 12.3%, indicates the credit transmission channel on the corporate side is functioning. SME growth at 4.2% is softer, which is consistent with the more rate-sensitive nature of smaller business finance.
On money supply, M4ex annual growth ticked up to 4.6% in April from 4.5% in March — just above the 4–4.5% range generally consistent with 2% inflation. The monetary backdrop has stabilised at a mildly expansionary level, a meaningful change from the near-recessionary readings of two years ago. One month above the band is not cause for alarm, but it is a number the MPC cannot ignore indefinitely.
Housing is Britain's dominant transmission mechanism for consumer confidence and wealth effects. When approvals and completions diverge this sharply, it signals a turning point, not a recovery. The MPC — meeting 18 June — will see April as a pre-shock reading. Consumer credit at 8.8% growth is a background concern. Money supply edging above the inflation-consistent band is a signal worth monitoring, even if one month proves nothing. The Bank should hold its nerve and watch the May and June data before drawing conclusions.
The housing market is fading from its pre-conflict peak. Completions will likely remain soft through Q2 and Q3 as the approval pipeline normalises. Consumer spending, supported by unsecured credit growth, is holding up — but it is borrowed resilience. Business credit growth is a genuine bright spot, particularly for large firms. Money supply is no longer contracting. Put together, this is an economy muddling through at low speed — neither in recession nor growing in any way that addresses the underlying productivity gap.