ONS·GDP Monthly Estimate·July 2026·Released 11 September 2026·Damian Pudner
Monthly Growth Beats Forecasts at 0.4% — But Three-Month Growth Has Halved Since April
The economy grew 0.4% in July against a consensus forecast of zero, the third consecutive improvement in the monthly growth rate since April's fall. But the steadier three-month measure has held at 0.4% for a second month running, down from 0.8% in April, and production has now gone from growth to stagnation to outright contraction across successive three-month periods.
+0.4%3-month GDP growth to July 2026Unchanged vs June; down from 0.8% in April
+0.4%Monthly GDP July 2026vs 0.0% consensus (Reuters)
+1.3%3m GDP vs year earlier 3m to Jul vs 3m to Jul 2025
Key Points
Monthly GDP grew 0.4% in July, against a Reuters consensus forecast of zero: the sequence runs −0.1% in April, flat in May, +0.3% in June, +0.4% in July.
Three-month rolling growth held at 0.4% in the three months to July, unchanged from June but down from 0.8% in the three months to April and 0.6% in the three months to May: the rate has effectively halved since the spring. Reuters' poll had expected a slowdown to 0.3%, so both the monthly and three-month readings beat consensus.
On the three-month measure, services are carrying the economy. They grew 0.6%, led by professional, scientific and technical activities (+2.1%) and information and communication (+2.5%), while production and construction both contracted by 0.5%.
Production has gone from growth to stagnation to contraction: +0.2% in the three months to May, no growth in the three months to June, now −0.5% in the three months to July, despite a 0.5% three-month rise in manufacturing.
Construction has reversed too: +1.5% in the three months to May, +0.3% to June, now −0.5% to July, with public housing new work down 8.4% in the three months to July.
Computer programming and consultancy grew 3.5% in July alone, contributing 0.12 percentage points to GDP on its own, more than any other single industry, with the ONS pointing to strong activity among businesses involved in AI and cloud computing.
Three-month rolling GDP growth (%), April to July 2026
Source: ONS, GDP monthly estimate, UK: June 2026 (13 Aug 2026, confirms April at 0.8% and May revised down from 0.7% to 0.6%) and July 2026 (11 Sep 2026, confirms June at 0.4% and reports July at 0.4%).
Sector Overview
Services — 3-month
+0.6%
Professional/scientific/technical (+2.1%) and information & communication (+2.5%) led. Wholesale/retail (−0.5%) and education (−0.3%) the drags. Monthly: +0.4%.
Production — 3-month
−0.5%
Reversed from +0.2% (3m to May) and no growth (3m to June). Water supply/waste (−4.0%), mining & quarrying (−2.6%) and electricity/gas (−1.5%) drove the fall. Manufacturing the exception, +0.5%. Monthly: +0.2%.
Construction — 3-month
−0.5%
Reversed from +1.5% (3m to May) and +0.3% (3m to June). Public housing new work −8.4%; private housing repair & maintenance −1.7%. Monthly: +0.1%.
Manufacturing — 3-month
+0.5%
Computer/electronic/optical products (+3.9%) and machinery (+3.0%) led. Basic metals (−1.2%) and electrical equipment (−3.0%) lagged. Monthly: +0.9%.
Key Data
Indicator
Jun 2026
Jul 2026
3m to Jul
3m vs Year Earlier
GDP (monthly %)
+0.3%
+0.4%
+0.4%
+1.3%
Services output
+0.4%
+0.4%
+0.6%
+1.7%
Production output
−0.2%
+0.2%
−0.5%
+0.5%
Manufacturing output
−0.5%
+0.9%
+0.5%
—
Construction output
−0.1%
+0.1%
−0.5%
−2.3%
Consumer-facing services
+0.4%
−0.4%
+0.5%
—
Source: ONS, GDP monthly estimate, UK: July 2026; Index of Services, Index of Production and Construction output bulletins, July 2026. "3m vs year earlier" = three months to July 2026 vs three months to July 2025 — a different measure from the single-month year-on-year figure (+1.6%) reported in most wire coverage of today's release.
Commentary
The monthly number is undeniably good. Reuters' poll had pencilled in zero growth; the economy delivered 0.4%. That is the third consecutive improvement in the monthly rate since April's 0.1% fall, through flat May and 0.3% in June. The Treasury will quite reasonably make something of it.
The smoother numbers are less flattering. Three-month growth also beat consensus, coming in at 0.4% rather than the expected 0.3%, but it has not accelerated. It is exactly where it was in June and half the 0.8% rate recorded in April. One strong month has stopped the deterioration for now. It has not reversed it.
The composition is the real weakness. Services grew 0.6% over the latest three months, while production and construction both fell 0.5%. Production has moved from +0.2% in the three months to May, to zero in June, to −0.5% in July. Construction has rolled over even faster: +1.5%, then +0.3%, now −0.5%. Public housing new work fell 8.4%.
By contrast, professional, scientific and technical activity rose 2.1% and information and communication rose 2.5%. Computer programming and consultancy alone jumped 3.5% in July and contributed 0.12 percentage points to GDP, more than any other single industry, with the ONS pointing to strong activity among firms involved in AI and cloud computing.
There is nothing wrong with software-led growth. Britain should want more of it. But this is not yet a broad-based recovery.
John Healey says Britain is "turning a corner." Today's 0.4% gives the Chancellor a useful headline, but the claim is ahead of the data. Three-month growth has halved since April, production and construction are both contracting, and much of the strength is concentrated in services and technology. Better than forecast, certainly. A corner turned? Not yet.
What This Means for the Economy
The broader problem is not whether Britain can produce the occasional strong monthly GDP print. It is whether growth can spread beyond a relatively narrow group of service industries.
At present, too much of the economy is still fighting headwinds. Public housebuilding is weak. Industrial output is soft. Consumer-facing services fell in July. Energy remains expensive and volatile, planning remains constrained and financing costs remain high.
That leaves the recovery unusually dependent on services continuing to outperform. If they do, growth can grind on. If they cool, there is not yet much elsewhere ready to take their place.
Next Release
GDP Monthly Estimate, UK — August 2026 · 15 October 2026
Note: Full time-series revisions from Blue Book 2026 land in the Quarterly National Accounts release on 30 September 2026 and the October monthly GDP bulletin.